Rating agency Crisil has said in its latest research report that retail inflation (CPI-based) could be 4% on an average in FY 2025-26, while it was 4.6% in the last financial year. According to PTI news, Crisil says that food inflation may be softened as the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast more monsoon than normal. At the same time, non-food inflation can also be controlled due to a decrease in the prices of international goods.
GDP growth estimated to be 6.5%
According to the news, Crisil said that the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the same standard that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India uses to target inflation. Crisil has estimated the GDP growth to be 6.5% in FY 2025-26, but with it some are also at the bottom risk. International steps such as increasing tariffs by the US can pose a threat to exports, while good monsoon and repo rate cuts will support domestic growth.
Adequate liquidity available in the system
The report states that adequate liquidity is available in the system, which will help the financial situation. However, capital flow and rupee may remain unstable. Bank credit growth has seen softening. Statistics by May 2025 show that the debt hike has been slow in the first quarter. The report also says that due to softening of inflation, MPC may once again cut the repo rate in this financial year, after which the situation is likely to remain stable.
Crude oil prices can increase pressure
However, global instability, especially the increase in crude oil prices, can put pressure on markets. Let us tell you, in June 2025, crude oil reached $ 80 per barrel for the first time, which has affected the bond yield, stock market and rupee. The MPC had cut the repo rate by 50 basis points in the meeting held in June, which reduced to 5.5%.
Latest business news
