Goldman Sachs has raised India’s growth forecast by 30 basis points to 6.3 per cent for 2023 in its latest forecast released on Friday, driven by a pick-up in services exports and lower goods exports. However, it has retained its growth forecast for the calendar year 2024 at 6.3 per cent.
The global investment banker has also revised its earlier estimates for FY23 and FY24 higher by 30 basis points and 10 basis points to 6.9 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively.
Going forward, we expect service exports to continue to be strong, the banker said. At the same time, less export of goods will continue. This will increase net exports in the calendar year 23. While the real export growth will remain above 4 per cent and the real growth in imports in 2023 will remain the same. The demand for the service is likely to increase in some areas. The Services PMI has risen to a 13-year high of 62, while domestic air passenger numbers have returned to pre-pandemic levels. Services exports continue to grow despite slowdown in global growth.
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The global investment banker has also said that domestic consumption and investment are mixed in Q1 of calendar year 2020. However, private sector investment demand has remained stagnant and industrial credit growth has been sluggish in recent months due to large industries. The government is increasing spending on a sequential basis, stronger than ever before, and has increased spending in January and February.