India’s population will decrease after 2061, the population will double from China by the end of the century
By the end of the current century, China’s population will be half with India.
New Delhi: There will be very important changes in India’s population in the coming years. According to McKinji’s fresh Demographic Report and United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, India’s population will reach its peak in 2061 to 1.7 billion, after which it will begin to decline. But despite this decline, India will remain the most populous country in the world by the end of the century. It is estimated that by 2100 India’s population will be 1.5 billion, which will be more than double the population of China (63.3 crore).
Population will come to 1.5 billion in 2100
According to McKinji’s report, India’s fertility rate i.e. fertility rate is 1.98 children per woman, lower than a replacement rate of 2.1. The United Nations report shows that India’s population will increase to 1.69 billion in 2054 and will gradually decrease to 1.5 billion in 2100 after reaching the peak of 1.70 billion in 2061. On the other hand, China’s population is 1.41 billion in 2024, which will be reduced to 1.21 billion by 2054 and 63.3 crore by 2100. This decline is due to China’s extremely-nime fertility rate (1.14 children per woman). According to United Nations estimates, China’s population will decrease by 20.4 crores by 2054 and 78.6 crores by the end of the century.
There will be many challenges in front of India
McKinji’s report warns that the increasing number of elderly in the population will increase the pressure on India’s economy. By 2050, there will be only 4.6 working people behind each elderly, who are currently 10. By 2100 this ratio will reach 1.9, which is like the position of Japan today. This will increase the burden of taking care of the elderly on government treasures and families. In addition, from 1997 to 2023, India’s youth population contributed 0.7 per cent every year in GDP, but by 2050 this contribution will be reduced to 0.2 per cent.
India can deal with challenges on the strength of women
The report suggested that India can deal with this demographic challenge by increasing the participation in the labor force of women, which is only 29 per cent at the age of 20-49. In other emerging economies, this figure is 50–70%. In addition, the stake in India’s global consumption will increase from 9% in 2024 to 16% in 2050, which will further increase India’s global importance. Explain that India’s population structure is still young compared to China. India’s average age in 2024 was 28.4 years, while China’s 39.6 years. By 2100, India’s average age will be 47.8 years and China will be 60.7 years.
India will have to take some big steps
For India, this is the time to convert its demographic strength into economic power. Experts believe that India can keep its position globally strong despite the decline in population after 2061 by improving education and health services, more employment opportunities for women, and technological innovation. If India takes the right steps from now on, it can not only take its economy to the heights, but can also play a strong role on the global platform with a double population from China by the end of the century.
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