The monsoon can reach the country 4 days ahead of the scheduled time this time. According to the Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon will hit Kerala coast on 27 May. It usually reaches Kerala on 1 June.
According to the Meteorological Department, if the monsoon arrives on May 27, it will be the first time in 16 years when it will knock so soon. Monsoon knocked in Kerala on 23 May in 2009 and on 30 May in 2024. Apart from this, the monsoon came on 29 May in 2018.
IMD reported that after reaching Kerala on 1 June, the monsoon covers other states by 8 July. Around 17 September starts a return to Rajasthan and is completed by 15 October.
Earth and Science Ministry Secretary M Ravichandran said- there is a possibility of more rain than normal during June to September. During the 4 months, 105 percent rainfall can be received at an average of 87cm.
96 to 104 percent of rain is generally considered normal. Less than 90 percent rainfall is considered much lower than normal, between 90 and 95 percent, less than normal, between 104 and 110 percent, more than normal rainfall and more than 110 percent rainfall is considered very high.
An IMD official said that there is no direct connection between the total rainfall and the date of starting across the country during the monsoon. A quick or late monsoon in Kerala does not mean that it will cover other parts of the country in the same way.
Monsoon entry in Andaman and Nicobar till May 13
The IMD said on 9 May that the monsoon and Nicobar, around May 13, are very likely to move forward in parts of the Bay of Bengal. However, the official announcement of the arrival of the monsoon season in India is made only when it reaches Kerala.
How correct the monsoon estimate has been in the last 5 years
Looking at the figures of the last 5 years, the estimate of Central Weather Agency IMD and private agency Skymet has been almost correct in the monsoon season. In 2024, the monsoon season received 108 per cent rainfall, while IMD had estimated 106 per cent and Skymet had estimated 102 per cent rainfall.
2023 received 94 percent rainfall. The IMD had estimated 96 per cent and Skymet was 94 per cent rainfall. Earlier, 2022 received 106 percent rainfall. This was more than the estimate of both IMD and Skymet.
