India’s GDP expected to expand by 7.3% to over Rs 296 lakh crore in FY24, show govt estimates | Here’s how | Economy News
India’s economy is likely to grow by per cent. (Photo credit: X)
New Delhi: India’s FY24 GDP is expected to rise to 7.3 per cent, higher than the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent made by the Reserve Bank of India. The projected GDP for FY24 in currency terms stands at Rs 296.58 lakh crore compared to Rs 272.41 lakh crore in FY23, according to the NSO.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 7,3 per cent in FY24 led by higher growth in construction, financial, real estate and professional services, mining and quarrying, and public administration, defence and other services.
India’s GDP trajectory has pleasantly surprised economy watchers. The country’s economy grew by 7.6 per cent during the second quarter of FY24. The first quarter GDP stood at 7.8 per cent. The finance ministry in its half-yearly review forecast higher than 6.5 per cent GDP growth for India in FY24.
First Advance Estimates of National Income 2023-24
Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of ₹171.79 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹160.06 lakh crore, released on 31st… pic.twitter.com/ahW22ns7Lr
— PIB India (@PIB_India) January 5, 2024
S&P Global Ratings pegged India’s FY24 growth rate at 6.4 per cent, calling it the fastest-growing economy over the next 3 years. India Ratings and Research forecast 6.7 per cent growth in FY24.
India clocked 7.2 per cent growth in FY23, exceeding expectations. The economy grew at 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY23. This was a jump from the 4.4 per cent growth record in the Q3FY23.
The government estimate of real GDP, or GDP at constant prices stood at Rs 171.79 lakh crore compared to the provisional estimate of Rs 160.06 lakh crore from May 2023. The nominal GDP growth, or growth at current prices is pegged at Rs 16.1 lakh crore.
The Centre will present the second advance estimates for FY24 GDP on February 29, 2024, according to an official statement.
Why does govt present first advance GDP estimates?
The first advance estimates of GDP produced by the National Statistical Office (NSO) are expected to fomr the basis for Budget planning by the finance ministry. Though the upcoming budget on February 1, 2024 is expected to be an interim budget, there will nevertheless be statements of expense that will have to be drawn up for a vote on account by the Parliament to carry on the routine business of the economy until the new government is elected.
What are indicators used by NSO to arrive at advance GDP estimates?
The advance GDP estimates are arrived at using the following indicators:
- Index of Industrial Production
- Financial performance of listed private companies available for FY24
- Crop production targets and first advance estimates of crop production
- Production targets for livestock products and summer season production estimates
- Fish industry output
- Production and consumption of cement and steel
- Railway kilometers in net tonne and passengers carried
- Civil aviation sector passenger and cargo traffic
- Cargo traffic handled at sea ports
- Commercial vehicle sales
- Bank deposits and credits
- Accounts of Central and state governments available for first 6-8 months of the FY24
